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Recession fears clearly reflected in bond markets

Intensifying recession fear was the main theme in the markets in March, alongside never-ending Brexit and trade tensions. With downside risks to growth starting to materialize, major global central banks started their dovish turns. Most notably, Fed now forecasts no rate hike this year. ECB will keep interest rates unchanged at least through the end…

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Recession risks in Eurozone, in particular Germany, intensified

After the much more dovish than expected Fed economic projections and shockingly poor Eurozone manufacturing data, it looks like major world economies are at the brink recessions. German 10-year bund yield turned negative for the first time since 2016, and it was as high as 0.12 during the week. US yield curve between 3-month and…

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Economic Data Reinforce Fed Patience

Several indicators released this week signaled a moderation in the pace of U.S. economic growth, and provided further reinforcement for patience from the Fed on further monetary policy tightening. The week opened with the January retail sales report, which showed a bounce-back in consumer spending after what was the worst month for retailers since the…

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Global Economic Uncertainty Remains Elevated

Global Economic Uncertainty Remains Elevated For the Time Being Economic data out the gate this week provided some clarity on how the economy fared through the remainder of 2018. The partial government shutdown, which began in December and lasted well into January, had continued to delay important data releases, clouding analysts’ assessments of the economy’s…

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Trump hopes to seal trade agreements in “not-too-distant future”

US-China trade talks appeared to have made some important progress and are extended by two days through Sunday in Washington. In the Oval office while meeting Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, Trump said “we both feel there’s a very good chance a deal will happen.” He added that “both parties want to make this a…

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US-China trade talks made unknown progress, to be continued in Washington

Trade talk optimism, trade pessimism, drove markets up and down last week. In the end, Presidents of US and China decided to give markets some lip service and boosted stocks towards weekly close. Words, rather than substance, are enough to make investors happy. Yen and Swiss Franc ended as the weakest ones on late rally…

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On Track for a Trade Deal, First Signs of a Bottom in Growth

Trade talks end on an upbeat note The high-level trade talks in Washington this week were a litmus test of the ability of US and China to make a deal. It was time to put the tough questions on the table regarding intellectual property rights, forced technology transfer, industrial policy and non-tariff barriers. However, the…

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Brexit to Take the Spotlight from Fed, Trade War and US Government Shutdown

Risk sentiments continued to recover last week as Fed officials indicated they would be patient before making the next rate move. Positive developments of US-China trade talks also helped. One notable development was the rebound in US treasury yields as 10-year yield reclaimed 2.7 while 30-year yield is back above 3.0. Japan 10-year JGB yield…

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Investors expect Fed to stand pat in first half, may cut rate by December

Sentiments Saved as Fed Powell Turned Cautious, China Stepped Up Supporting Measures There were big roller coaster rides in the financial markets last week. Apple’s sales outlook downgrade heightened the concerns over serious slowdown in the Chinese economy. There was the “Currency Flash Crash” which sent through all key technical resistance levels while Australian Dollar…

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